Will Lab Diamond Prices Keep Falling? Wholesale Has Stopped. Retail Has Not.

Lab grown wholesale prices stopped falling in 2026. After a 26 percent drop across 2025, one to three carat rounds rose about 2 percent in the third quarter of 2026. The research house that tracks them asked in its own headline whether the bottom had been reached.

The rise was uneven. One carat rounds gained 1.3 percent, two carat rounds 2.3 percent and three carat rounds 7.5 percent, while one and a half carat stones slipped 3 percent.¹

The turn came slowly. The last quarter of 2025 had already produced the smallest quarterly drop since lab grown diamonds reached the market, 4.7 percent.³

The index tells the same calmer story. It sits 10 percent below a year ago, against 92 percent below where tracking began in July 2018.¹ Most of the fall is history.

Three forces are holding the floor: growers have stopped cutting rough prices, the largest manufacturers control more of the chain, and demand is still climbing. Each one shows up in the 2026 data.

Growers are holding rough prices steady and in some cases raising them. Larger manufacturers now run more of the process, from growing to setting, which gives them more control over production.¹

Earlier signs pointed the same way. When rough costs reached about $10 per carat, HPHT factories in China stopped cutting their prices, and prices for those goods rose 10 to 20 percent in 2025.³

Demand is the third leg. US unit sales of lab grown set jewellery rose 25 percent in September and close to 23 percent so far this year.¹ In bridal, 61 percent of 2025 engagement rings had lab grown centre stones, up 239 percent since 2020.⁴

Growth method splits the market too. Most stones of two carats and above are CVD grown, while smaller goods come from both CVD and HPHT, and HPHT stones typically trade at a discount.³ A floor for one method is not automatically a floor for the other.

The shop window is still falling. StoneAlgo's average one carat asking price fell 19.4 percent in the three months to October 13, 2026, and its two carat average fell by almost exactly the same amount.

Larger stones followed at a slower pace. Three carat averages fell 11.4 percent in three months and five carat averages 15.1 percent. Over six months the one carat average is down 23.4 percent.⁵

The fastest cuts are where the most stones are listed. StoneAlgo tracks about 387,000 one carat prices against about 101,000 at five carats, and over six months three carat averages fell only 5.7 percent while one carat averages fell 23.4 percent.

Retail can keep falling while wholesale rises because it starts so much higher. High grade loose stones list at $800 to $900 per carat, against about $80 at wholesale.² That gap is margin, and margin is what retailers are now cutting.

A demand slowdown or a wave of new capacity could push wholesale down again. The third quarter rise was about 2 percent, small enough to reverse in a single quarter, and one and a half carat stones were already down 3 percent.

Retail has its own pressure. Average asking prices fell at every size StoneAlgo tracks, which points to retailers competing on price for the same buyers.

No published forecast for 2027 can be verified, so none is quoted here. The data supports a narrower claim. The seven year collapse is over at wholesale, and retail is closing the gap from above.

Waiting three months saved about $122 on an average one carat stone this year. Choosing a different grade can move the price by $600 per carat. Buy when the occasion arrives, and spend the effort on the comparison instead.

Put the two levers side by side. Waiting three months saved about $122 on the average one carat asking price this year. Moving from a lower grade at $250 per carat to a high grade at $800 changes the same carat by $550. The grade is the bigger decision, by more than four times.

Large stones are the clearest case. Three carat rounds rose 7.5 percent at wholesale in the third quarter, the most of any size, so waiting for a bigger stone to get cheaper is the weakest bet on the board.

Small and medium stones are a closer call. Retail averages are still falling, so a flexible buyer with no date can watch one more quarter. A buyer with a date should not.

The setting does not move with the market at all. On Draco rings and bracelets, 14K gold adds a fixed 18 percent to the 10K base and platinum 45 percent, whatever the diamond price list does.

At Draco, a carat of lab grown diamond set in 10K gold costs CAD 433 to CAD 844 depending on the piece. That is about US$304 to US$593 at the Bank of Canada rate of October 13, 2026, with the metal and the setting included.

The lower figures come from pieces made of many small stones, such as the 5 carat round tennis bracelet at CAD 2,920 and the 2 carat studs at CAD 999. The higher figures come from pieces built on one large stone.⁷

Each piece is IGI certified and ships with its report, which can be provided on request before purchase and verified free at IGI.org. See the 3 carat tennis bracelet at CAD 2,201 and the 5.1 carat oval engagement ring at CAD 2,753, or browse the full collection.

Decide when to buy a lab diamond in five steps: start from the date, choose the grade, compare against today's average, read any markdown carefully and know what the return window covers.

Every Draco piece carries 30 day returns, the Lifetime Authenticity Guarantee, free resizing, and free insured worldwide shipping to 25 markets, delivered duty paid with nothing collected at the door, and signature on delivery. Start a commission at create your piece.

For the full price history, see the lab diamond price trend report. For what a carat costs at each layer, the price per carat report.